Arab World
Regional coverage across the Middle East and North Africa
Energy disruption and Palestine diplomacy reshape MENA risk
- Hormuz shock: The region’s top market-moving story remains the aftershock from the Gulf war and the still-fragile ceasefire environment around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest IMF and IEA assessments show shipping, aviation and energy flows have been severely disrupted, with early-April oil and product loadings through the Strait still far below pre-crisis levels and alternative routes through Saudi Arabia, Fujairah and Türkiye only partly offsetting the loss.
- Growth and trade downgrade: The IMF now expects Middle East and North Africa growth to slow sharply in 2026, with MENAP growth cut to 1.4% under a scenario that assumes trade and energy production normalise by mid-year. It says higher maritime insurance, weaker logistics activity, wider sovereign spreads and rising borrowing costs are feeding through from war risk into trade, food, fertiliser and industrial inputs across the region.
- Palestine moves back into European diplomacy: Brussels hosted a broad international meeting with Palestinian representatives this week as EU officials signalled more room for action on Gaza and the occupied West Bank after Hungary’s political shift. That matters for markets because Europe is both Israel’s largest trading partner and the biggest aid provider to Palestinians, so any change in sanctions, trade treatment or diplomatic posture could carry commercial and political consequences well beyond symbolism.
- Energy transition meets security reality: The crisis is reinforcing a hard regional lesson that energy transition, digital infrastructure and sovereignty cannot be separated from route security. IMF officials are now explicitly urging investment in resilient power, water and digital networks, as well as deeper regional energy-market integration and more diversified trade routes, which puts Gulf capital spending and corridor strategy back at the centre of the MENA investment story.
- Corridors over rhetoric: The strongest verified regional theme is not a single flashy deal but a structural repricing of corridors, ports, pipelines and export flexibility. Producers with access outside Hormuz, especially through Red Sea, Mediterranean or Indian Ocean routes, are gaining strategic value as importers and investors reassess concentration risk across Gulf shipping and energy infrastructure.