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Commodities Surge as US Eases Iran Sanctions to Stem Fuel Crisis
- Global Supply Chains: S&P Global has forecast a 35 per cent surge in raw material prices by the third quarter of 2026, driven by structural shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the cascading effects of the ongoing Middle East war. Analysts warn that damaged infrastructure and depleted global inventories will lock in a “higher for longer” commodity price trajectory through 2028. This prolonged elevation in costs is expected to permanently alter international supply routes and force major economies to restructure their trade dependencies.
- Energy Sanctions: Attempting to mitigate a severe worldwide fuel crisis, the United States has issued a 60-day waiver authorising the sale of Iranian oil to global markets. The temporary exemption, designated as General License X, allows vital crude supplies to bypass the extensive US sanctions architecture that otherwise remains firmly in place. The move underscores the fragility of Western energy security when confronted with major regional wars, forcing Washington to temporarily ease economic blockades to stabilise domestic and allied economies.
- Climate Policy & Technology: United Nations climate negotiations in Bonn have ended in gridlock after wealthier nations stalled on providing critical adaptation finance to the Global South. In response, UN Secretary-General António Guterres used his address at London Climate Action Week to connect the climate crisis with unchecked technological expansion, demanding that artificial intelligence developers publicly account for the massive carbon, water, and land footprints of their data centres.
- Palestine & Western Priorities: The systemic Israeli blockade of fuel, engine oil, and industrial spare parts into Gaza has entirely collapsed local water production and wastewater treatment, accelerating an engineered health crisis. Meanwhile, a communiqué from the G7 summit in Évian offered procedural statements on Gaza reconstruction while explicitly prioritising the acceleration of Western energy diversification away from the Strait of Hormuz. The contrast highlights a continued refusal by major Western powers to confront the architecture of collective punishment when strategic economic interests are at stake.